The Alabama Crimson Tide look to be in a good spot to make the 12-team College Football Playoff entering championship weekend.
Alabama was ranked No. 11 in the updated CFP rankings, released Tuesday night. As of the committee’s penultimate rankings, Kalen DeBoer’s team has the final at-large playoff berth after beating the Auburn Tigers 28-14 in last Saturday’s Iron Bowl, and after the Miami Hurricanes fell 42-38 in an upset loss at Syracuse.
But one question seems to be lingering: what happens to Alabama if Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers knock off the SMU Mustangs in the ACC title game Saturday night in Charlotte?
Currently, SMU is the projected ACC champion and No. 3 seed in the committee’s bracket. The Mustangs are No. 8 in the current CFP rankings. But if SMU loses to Cade Klubnik and a Tigers offense that has shown flashes of explosiveness this season, and the debate comes down to a three-loss Alabama team vs. a two-loss SMU team, who would get the nod by the selection committee?
USA TODAY Sports columnist Paul Myerberg called a Clemson win over SMU a “doomsday scenario” for the selection committee. It’s also the only scenario, Myerberg says, that could keep Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide from reaching the playoff.
Myerberg explains:
“The Mustangs argument rests on just two losses, both to ranked teams; a nine-game winning streak featuring six wins against bowl teams; only two Power Four wins decided by single digits; and being one of two Power Four teams, along with Oregon, to go unbeaten in conference play.
“Alabama’s case rests on beating Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU. Being Alabama also helps.”
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Myerberg concluded that Alabama would likely get into the CFP over SMU. “While impossible to predict with any certainty, here’s guessing the 12-team committee continues a tradition set during the four-team era and gives the Crimson Tide the benefit of the doubt,” he said.
Fox Sports’ analyst Joel Klatt agrees. Klatt said on the Thursday edition of his podcast that he saw Clemson beating SMU, with Alabama holding on to the final playoff spot over the Mustangs.
I think in a direct comparison, SMU is going to lose the argument to Alabama. I really do,” Klatt said. “That’s why I told you (earlier) in the rankings reaction that Alabama was going to be in regardless.”
There’s a chance that things go straight chalk Saturday and a debate between Alabama’s resume vs. SMU’s never comes to fruition. That would be the preferred outcome for the committee.
