LSU football will meet Baylor for the first time since 1985 on Tuesday. The two will square off in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Both squads enter at 8-4 with hopes for a nine-win season. LSU can’t meet its 10-win mark from the previous two seasons, while head coach Dave Aranda and Baylor are looking for their best record since winning the Big 12 in 2021.
Aranda and LSU are old friends. Aranda worked at LSU from 2016-19 and coordinated LSU’s national title-winning defense. So far at Baylor, he’s 31-29 as a head coach. He’s had some lows, including a 2-7 record in 2020 and going 3-9 last year. But the Big 12 title in 2021 led to a Sugar Bowl win.
Aranda entered 2024 on the hot seat but found stable ground with the eight-win regular season. A Texas Bowl win would only boost his status heading into 2025.
Outside of the Aranda connection, LSU fans are unfamiliar with Baylor, given how rare they play. Here are five things Tiger fans should know about the Baylor Bears before kickoff on Tuesday.
1. Baylor’s passing attack is solid
The passing game was a major part of Baylor’s resurgence in 2024. Aranda hired veteran play-caller Jake Spavital to coordinate the attack, and the results were rewarding.
Baylor ranks 17th nationally in EPA/pass and 22nd in passing success rate. The unit is explosive, too. Baylor sits 20th in 20+ yard pass rate.
Former Mississippi State quarterback Sawyer Robertson had a breakout campaign in his first year as the full-time starter. According to PFF, he was the fourth best-graded passer in the Big 12.
Spavital and Robertson will stress all areas of the field. Robertson will take his deep shots but throws the intermediate ball at a higher rate than any quarterback in the Big 12.
A key to the passing game is keeping Robertson clean. He gets the ball out fast and only faces pressure of 23.9% of dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the conference.
2. The defense has struggled
In 2023, Baylor ranked outside the top 100 in scoring defense. That led Dave Aranda to take over the play-calling duties entering 2024. This year was Aranda’s first season calling plays dating back to his time at LSU.
Baylor saw improvement, with the scoring defense jumping all the way up to 69th. The play is far from clean, though.
Baylor ranks 96th in EPA/pass allowed and tends to surrender big plays through the air. That’s something LSU will look to capitalize on after it gets the downfield passing game in rhythm vs. Oklahoma.
Baylor’s cornerback play is solid, but the safeties are inconsistent in coverage. If LSU can get Chris Hilton over the top and combo it with Aaron Anderson’s speed on crossers, LSU will move the ball.
3. Baylor can defend the run
The biggest jump from 2023 to 2024 came in defending the run. A year after Baylor ranked 116th in EPA/run allowed, the Bears ranked 59th.
Baylor ranks top 50 in yards per rush allowed thanks to solid play down to down. But teams have found ways to generate explosive runs against this unit, and Baylor doesn’t always find the negative plays needed to make up for it.
LSU’s run game struggled all year, and it’s an area of concern with a new-look offensive line in this meeting.
