Penn State heads to Indianapolis as a slight underdog in its matchup with Oregon for the Big Ten title. How can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset in Lucas Oil Stadium and win their first conference championship since 2016?
Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game that we believe will determine the outcome:
JON SAUBER: OREGON’S WIDE RECEIVERS VS. PENN STATE’S SECONDARY
This game is all about what Penn State can do to nullify Oregon’s speed. That applies when the Nittany Lions are on offense, with how they can find ways to create explosive plays against a fast and physical Duck defense, and even more so when they’re on defense. The Ducks have one of the fastest receiving groups in the country, and offensive coordinator Will Stein maximizes it.
Both of the Oregon’s leading wideouts — Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart — are burners who can run with almost anyone in the country. They’re both big plays waiting to happen. And their quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, excels with his accuracy and anticipation, getting the ball to his playmakers in space and allowing them to break big gains.
And Penn State’s defensive success is predicated on stopping those big plays.
Defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s group has only given up 80 passing plays of 10 or more yards this season — good for 13th in the country — and his defense is built around the idea that it won’t get beat for explosive gains. In fact, it’s only given up eight passing plays that have gone for 30-plus yards (10th in the nation). Oregon’s offense, mind you, has 130 10-plus yard passing plays (ranking 16th) and 21 30-plus yarders (ranking 20th).
This is going to be a battle of strengths, and it’s paramount that the Nittany Lion cornerbacks — led by A.J. Harris, Jalen Kimber and Zion Tracy — don’t get beat over the top. And if they do, the team’s safeties — led by Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley — will have to be there to provide help. It helps that the group has been so proficient at limiting those plays, largely because those two groups are arguably the best positions on Penn State’s roster. And frankly, Harris might be the most underrated corner in the country.
Saturday’s game is going to say a lot about this Nittany Lion defense. It’s a group that has been dominant for the majority of the 2024 season and is third in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. But PSU also hasn’t faced a quarterback as accurate as Gabriel with weapons to make things happen like Johnson and Stewart.
If the secondary shows up against the Ducks like it has against other opponents, there will be little doubt about how good it is and the heights it can lead the program to in the postseason.
