The Lions have a puncher’s chance to beat the 49ers this Sunday because they’re a good team, but the 49ers absolutely should win because they’re better than Detroit practically across the board.
Let’s start on defense. The Lions run defense is good, but their pass rush is not — they rank 22nd out of 32 teams in sack percentage. Which means their pass defense is terrible. They have to blitz to generate pressure, their defensive backs take big gambles and give up big plays, and that’s why Detroit ranks 27th in passing yards allowed and 27th in touchdown passes allowed.
When the Lions inevitably blitz Brock Purdy, he should be able to shred them with quick passes over the middle to Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. That’s because Purdy is outstanding against the blitz. Expect him to have a big game.
The 49ers simply have better weapons than the Lions. Detroit’s tight end Sam LaPorta is excellent but Kittle is the best. Detroit’s running back tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs is outstanding but Christian McCaffrey is the best. Detroit’s No. 1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is terrific but Brandon Aiyuk is better. And if Deebo Samuel plays through a shoulder injury, which he very well might, the Lions will have a very difficult time holding the 49ers offense to fewer than 30 points
The final question is whether the 49ers have the better quarterback than the Lions. As of now, no, simply because Goff has been to a Super Bowl and Purdy hasn’t yet. But if Purdy wins this game, Purdy gets the edge.
