Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: Saquon Barkley did not show signs of getting old or worn down. Even in the Super Bowl, his numbers weren’t great because the Chiefs rallied to him effectively, and didn’t miss many tackles, not because of his own skill set. He still was shifty and elusive which, for a back his size, is a big deal.
Besides, the guy just ran for 2,504 yards including the playoffs, more than anyone has rushed for in a season and postseason in NFL history.
He had 17 explosive runs of 20-plus yards, more than anyone in 2024 except Derrick Henry (19). He scored 13 rushing touchdowns, a career-best. He literally backward-hurdled over a defender last year. His athleticism isn’t in question.
Match that up with the team he plays on and it’s as obvious as breathing: Saquon Barkley is going to get taken with a Round 1 pick.
But if you’re thinking about taking him first overall, or as the first running back off the board, or as even the second or third running back off the board, then you might be asking for trouble.
Barkley’s career-best year was also the busiest year he’s ever had. Last year, over 20 games, Barkley touched the ball 482 times. Worse yet, 436 of those touches were carries. It’s the sixth-most rush attempts by a running back in a single year (regular-season plus postseason) since 1970!
And the track record of running backs coming off a season with that much work isn’t good. These guys are humans, not machines, and they’re susceptible to getting tired and worn down. History shows it.
But it’s not just that history that should concern you. It’s Barkley’s own personal history of wearing down the year after getting ultra-high volume that should make you completely re-think your expectations for the 28-year-old in 2025.
After 400 carries
Barkley is the 25th running back to get over 400 carries in a year. Here’s a snapshot of the prior 24 running backs since 1990 who had 400-plus carries in a year and what happened to them the year after:
