College football games aren’t played on paper and through analytics, but those type of metrics are forecasting another rough year for Michigan State in 2025.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his post-spring SP+ rankings on Thursday, and let’s just say the rankings weren’t kind for the Spartans. For those unaware of SP+, it is essentially a computer-driven metrics system that produces ratings and predictive measures for next season. Included below is the official Google AI description of SP+:
“A widely used advanced analytics system created by Bill Connelly. It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, often used to predict team performance and identify strengths and weaknesses. SP+ is presented as an adjusted points per game figure, making it easy to compare teams and understand their relative strength.”
I took a look at the initial SP+ rankings this morning and have pulled out the notable results and high-level findings specific to Michigan State. Check out my those key points related to the Spartans below:
Michigan State was ranked as one of the worst power four teams in the SP+ rankings and near the bottom of the Big Ten. Overall, the Spartans came in at No. 64 nationally — which was No. 59 out of 68 power four teams (plus Notre Dame) and No. 15 in the Big Ten. The Spartans were only ranked ahead of Purdue (No. 101 — last of all power four teams), Northwestern (No. 87) and Maryland (No. 70).
What led to the Spartans’ terribly low ranking was a poor rating offensively. The SP+ system ranked Michigan State’s offense as No. 107 nationally. The Spartans’ defense and special teams ranked relatively high at No. 32 nationally for both. Ironically, I personally am excited about the Spartans’ offense and anticipate that side of the ball to be much improved this year, while I have some concerns about the Michigan State front seven on defense this fall.
