time better than Caleb Williams…
The great debate rages on among Bears fans. It’s creating a civil war of sorts.
On one side are supporters of Justin Fields, those who chanted at the regular-season finale to bring back their quarterback.
On the other side are those who have seen Detroit’s passing game, Minnesota’s passing game and now Jordan Love stepping up to ignite Green Bay’s passing attack, and wonder: “What happened to much-promised Bears passing game?” They want the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft used for Caleb Williams. They feel Fields failed or former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and former coach Matt Nagy failed Fields thereby ruining him.
It comes down to one question: Is it worth taking Williams No. 1 or could they take the North and not give it back and win a Super Bowl much faster by keeping Fields and building around him with all the extra picks they’ll get for the first pick.
What Exactly Is a Successful QB?
Numbers cruncher Dave Kluge this week on “X” revealed 30 years worth of data showing it’s worthwhile to take a quarterback No. 1 overall because they tend to be more “successful” than QBs taken at other spots. He defined success as 4,000 yards, 70% completions, 30-plus TDs and 80 starts or more.
No offense but maybe it’s too many decades of watching this garbage. To me, success is defined as winning the Super Bowl.
Who cares about statistics, Pro Bowls that they don’t even play anymore or even 80 starts?
Many Bears fans saw them lose a Super Bowl or lose an NFC championship game after winning a playoff game. They’ve not seen 4,000 yards passing but if it occurs without winning the Super Bowl it’s like the Golden State Warriors claiming they were the greatest team of all time because they broke the Bulls’ single-season victory mark. Ooops, the Bulls won the title and those Warriors didn’t and that’s what matters.
Do the Bears want to throw away a chance for multiple players on the flip of a coin basically, with success terms being some Pro Bowls?
This choice about No. 1 happens every year for teams, or at least every year when the consensus No. 1 player available is a quarterback.
A look back at the quarterbacks chosen first overall recently would suggest it’s more worthwhile to take the picks and trade down. You don’t need to go back as far as Kluge’s stats went because the game is played differently by the time one decade expires, let alone a generation-plus.
Percentages say they’re not going to get their Super Bowl winner at No. 1, even if all the scouts love what they see on film of Williams. And believe me, if you look at the film, it does show Williams doing some totally ridiculous things against some questionable opposition. So it’s easy to get on that bandwagon.
There have been 10 quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall since Matthew Stafford came into the league in 2009. This is a good cutoff point because he is the last No. 1 overall pick who was a quarterback that is still playing in the league.
The other nine quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall since then are Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young.
Between all 10 No. 1s, they have one Super Bowl win by Stafford, four Super Bowl appearances and one MVP by Cam Newton. They have an overall record as starters of 447 wins, 434 losses and five ties over 72 total seasons played.
Combined, they have a career passer rating of 89.92 with 19,897 completions in 31,368 attempts (63.4%), 229,342 yards with 1,438 touchdowns and 754 interceptions. They have averaged 7.31 yards per pass attempt.
These were the prime picks, the top dogs, the quarterbacks everyone wanted and these were the results: a little over .500 in wins, not even a 90 passer rating. Fields is already close to playing at those averages and it was without a team that had a defense. Supposedly, now they have one.
